|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: University of Bristol Sharks v Westbury David Lloyd C (Tue 12 Feb 2019)Match played between Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman (home) and Mark Bishop (away).Match won by Mark Bishop. Result: 13-15,2-15,5-15. Starting level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 571, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Mark Bishop: 872, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Mark Bishop to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman. Mark Bishop won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Bishop played 125% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Bishop actually played at a level of 1,058 and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman at a level of 470. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Bishop changes to +12% and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Bishop becomes +7.5% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman becomes -9.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Mark Bishop is +5.7% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman is -7.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Bishop: 89%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Bishop: 74%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 63%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 543, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Mark Bishop: 920, level confidence: 74%. Notes
|