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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Westbury David Lloyd C v University of Bristol Sharks (Thu 28 Mar 2019)Match played between Mark Bishop (home) and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg (away).Match won by Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg. Result: 14-16,8-15,1-15. Starting level for Mark Bishop: 886, level confidence: 89%. Set manually. Starting level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,239, level confidence: 62%. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Mark Bishop. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg played 100% better than Mark Bishop in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg actually played at a level of 1,482 and Mark Bishop at a level of 741. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg changes to +16% and Mark Bishop changes to -10.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg becomes +8.6% and for Mark Bishop becomes -6.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg is +6.5% and for Mark Bishop is -5.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 79%, Mark Bishop: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 66%, Mark Bishop: 79%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Bishop: 843, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,319, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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