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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Whitchurch Imperial A v Redland Eagles (Wed 23 Jan 2019)Match played between Richard Lay (home) and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (away).Match won by Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. Result: 15-17,14-16,9-15. Starting level for Richard Lay: 646, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 921, level confidence: 56%. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Richard Lay. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss won all of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss played 36% better than Richard Lay in this match. In this case, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss played at level 881 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss would normally have been playing at level 886 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Lay played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to 0% and Richard Lay changes to +0.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes 0% and for Richard Lay becomes +0.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is 0% and for Richard Lay is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 75%, Richard Lay: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 73%, Richard Lay: 82%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Lay: 646, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 915, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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