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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Redland Eagles v Whitchurch Imperial A (Thu 07 Mar 2019)Match played between Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams (home) and Nick Frost (away).Match won by Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Result: 13-15,16-14,15-5,15-8. Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,301, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Nick Frost: 933, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Nick Frost. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams played 30% better than Nick Frost in this match. In this case, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams played at level 1,235 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams would normally have been playing at level 1,256 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Frost played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to 0% and Nick Frost changes to +1.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes 0% and for Nick Frost becomes +1.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is 0% and for Nick Frost is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 89%, Nick Frost: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 86%, Nick Frost: 85%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,296, level confidence: 86%. Final level for Nick Frost: 939, level confidence: 85%. Notes
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