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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Kingsdown Stallions v University of Bristol Sharks (Wed 06 Mar 2019)Match played between Owen Sanders (home) and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman (away).Match won by Owen Sanders. Result: 15-8,15-3,15-6:15-8,15-8,15-5:15-13,15-13,17-15:15-11,15-9,15-8:8-15,15-11,15-17,15-17. Starting level for Owen Sanders: 1,598, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 624, level confidence: 59%. Owen Sanders to win as he is currently playing 156% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman. Owen Sanders won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 165% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owen Sanders played 165% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Owen Sanders actually played at a level of 1,625 and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman at a level of 614. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Owen Sanders changes to +0.7% and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman changes to -1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Owen Sanders becomes +0.6% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman becomes -1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Owen Sanders is +0.4% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman is -0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owen Sanders: 93%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owen Sanders: 91%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Owen Sanders: 1,599, level confidence: 91%. Final level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 618, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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