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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Chicken Dinners v Lansdown A (Thu 07 Mar 2019)Match played between Alisha Bhanot (home) and Carolyn Chennells (away).Match won by Alisha Bhanot. Result: 15-12,12-15,8-15,15-8,15-11. Starting level for Alisha Bhanot: 894, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Carolyn Chennells: 1,170, level confidence: 66%. Carolyn Chennells to win as she is currently playing 31% better than Alisha Bhanot. Alisha Bhanot won 60% of the games and 52% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 7% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alisha Bhanot played 9% better than Carolyn Chennells in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alisha Bhanot actually played at a level of 1,068 and Carolyn Chennells at a level of 979. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alisha Bhanot changes to +13% and Carolyn Chennells changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alisha Bhanot becomes +8% and for Carolyn Chennells becomes -9.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Alisha Bhanot is +6% and for Carolyn Chennells is -6.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Carolyn Chennells is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alisha Bhanot: 92%, Carolyn Chennells: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alisha Bhanot: 77%, Carolyn Chennells: 68%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alisha Bhanot: 938, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Carolyn Chennells: 1,125, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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