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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v University of Bath 4 (Wed 03 Mar 2010)Match played between Mark Taylor (home) and Andy Hibbert (away).Match won by Mark Taylor. Result: 9-1,9-5,9-7. Starting level for Mark Taylor: 2,597, level confidence: 45%. Starting level for Andy Hibbert: 1,224, level confidence: 48%. Mark Taylor to win as he is currently playing 112% better than Andy Hibbert. Mark Taylor won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Taylor played 50% better than Andy Hibbert in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Taylor was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,851 and 2,597 without affecting his level. As Mark Taylor has played below his allowed range at 1,846, his level reduction is 0.3% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Taylor would normally have been playing at level 2,234 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Hibbert played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Taylor changes to 0% and Andy Hibbert changes to +6.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Taylor becomes -0.2% and for Andy Hibbert becomes +4.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2009 / 2010' so the adjustment for Mark Taylor is 0% and for Andy Hibbert is +3.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Taylor: 67%, Andy Hibbert: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Taylor: 57%, Andy Hibbert: 58%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Taylor: 2,592, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Andy Hibbert: 1,275, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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