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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Weston v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 10 Mar 2010)Match played between Julian Titchener (home) and Ben Richards (away).Match won by Julian Titchener. Result: 7-9,9-5,9-5,4-9,9-6. Starting level for Julian Titchener: 1,296, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Richards: 1,872, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Ben Richards to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Julian Titchener. Julian Titchener won 60% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Titchener played 9% better than Ben Richards in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Titchener actually played at a level of 1,626 and Ben Richards at a level of 1,492. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Titchener changes to +21% and Ben Richards changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Titchener becomes +10.3% and for Ben Richards becomes -9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2009 / 2010' so the adjustment for Julian Titchener is +7.7% and for Ben Richards is -6.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben Richards is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Titchener: 87%, Ben Richards: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Titchener: 69%, Ben Richards: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Julian Titchener: 1,394, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Ben Richards: 1,780, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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