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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2A: Kingsdown v Westbury David Lloyd B (Wed 27 Jan 2010)Match played between Marc Funnell (home) and Helen Osborne (away).Match won by Marc Funnell. Result: 9-4,9-5,9-5:9-6,9-5,5-9,4-9:5-9,8-10,9-7,9-7,4-9:7-9,6-9,9-4,9-7,9-3:8-10,3-9,9-3,9-4,7-9. Starting level for Marc Funnell: 1,902, level confidence: 19%. Starting level for Helen Osborne: 352, level confidence: 16%. Marc Funnell to win as he is currently playing 440% better than Helen Osborne. Marc Funnell won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marc Funnell played 46% better than Helen Osborne in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Marc Funnell was taking it easy by anything up to 44%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 506 and 1,902 without affecting his level. In this case, Marc Funnell played at level 736 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Marc Funnell would normally have been playing at level 1,056 (based on typical behaviour), Helen Osborne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 44%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marc Funnell changes to 0% and Helen Osborne changes to +17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marc Funnell becomes 0% and for Helen Osborne becomes +9.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2009 / 2010' so the adjustment for Marc Funnell is 0% and for Helen Osborne is +7.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marc Funnell: 43%, Helen Osborne: 40%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marc Funnell: 23%, Helen Osborne: 21%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Marc Funnell: 1,907, level confidence: 23%. Final level for Helen Osborne: 379, level confidence: 21%. Notes
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