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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2C: BAWA v Cheddar Valley n/a (Wed 07 Apr 2010)Match played between Gary Trimnell (home) and Nick Bamber (away).Match won by Gary Trimnell. Result: 9-1,9-0,9-3. Starting level for Gary Trimnell: 900, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Nick Bamber: 820, level confidence: 66%. Gary Trimnell to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Nick Bamber. Gary Trimnell won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gary Trimnell played 164% better than Nick Bamber in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gary Trimnell actually played at a level of 1,396 and Nick Bamber at a level of 529. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 55% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gary Trimnell changes to +47% and Nick Bamber changes to -52%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gary Trimnell becomes +23.2% and for Nick Bamber becomes -25%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2009 / 2010' so the adjustment for Gary Trimnell is +17% and for Nick Bamber is -18%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gary Trimnell is limited to +10% and Nick Bamber is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gary Trimnell: 85%, Nick Bamber: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gary Trimnell: 55%, Nick Bamber: 52%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Gary Trimnell: 989, level confidence: 55%. Final level for Nick Bamber: 780, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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