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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Lansdown 1 (Fri 03 May 2019)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 12-10,11-6,12-14,5-12,6-11. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 8,735, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,230, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won 60% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 11% better than Jack Alcock in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam 'The Hulk' Giles actually played at a level of 8,384 and Jack Alcock at a level of 7,533. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +13% and Jack Alcock changes to -14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +4.1% and for Jack Alcock becomes -4.3%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.6% has been applied to his level change. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Play-off 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +2.8% and for Jack Alcock is -2.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 84%, Jack Alcock: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 72%, Jack Alcock: 68%. A final adjustment of -2.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 8,086, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,496, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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