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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Lansdown Summer A v Thornbury A (Summer) (Wed 22 May 2019)Match played between Martin Sadler (home) and Vivi B (away).Match won by Martin Sadler. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-13,11-6. Starting level for Martin Sadler: 3,498, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Vivi B: 1,496, level confidence: 53%. Martin Sadler to win as he is currently playing 134% better than Vivi B. Martin Sadler won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin Sadler played 31% better than Vivi B in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Martin Sadler was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,278 and 3,498 without affecting his level. As Martin Sadler has played below his allowed range at 2,110, his level reduction is 8% before damping. On the assumption that Martin Sadler would normally have been playing at level 2,915 (based on typical behaviour), Vivi B played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.2% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin Sadler changes to -3.6% and Vivi B changes to +14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin Sadler becomes -2.1% and for Vivi B becomes +7.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2019' so the adjustment for Martin Sadler is -1.4% and for Vivi B is +4.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin Sadler: 87%, Vivi B: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin Sadler: 65%, Vivi B: 54%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Martin Sadler: 3,445, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Vivi B: 1,562, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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