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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Thornbury A (Summer) v Lansdown Summer A (Wed 03 Jul 2019)Match played between Mark 'On Your' Toseland (home) and Lee Jacobs (away).Match won by Mark 'On Your' Toseland. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-5. Starting level for Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 5,400, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Lee Jacobs: 2,386, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Mark 'On Your' Toseland to win as he is currently playing 126% better than Lee Jacobs. Mark 'On Your' Toseland won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark 'On Your' Toseland played 74% better than Lee Jacobs in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark 'On Your' Toseland was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,610 and 5,400 without affecting his level. In this case, Mark 'On Your' Toseland played at level 4,342 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mark 'On Your' Toseland would normally have been playing at level 4,550 (based on typical behaviour), Lee Jacobs played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark 'On Your' Toseland changes to 0% and Lee Jacobs changes to +2.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark 'On Your' Toseland becomes 0% and for Lee Jacobs becomes +2%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2019' so the adjustment for Mark 'On Your' Toseland is 0% and for Lee Jacobs is +1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 86%, Lee Jacobs: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 75%, Lee Jacobs: 80%. A final adjustment of -1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 5,308, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Lee Jacobs: 2,410, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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