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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Thornbury A (Summer) v Workout Harbourside (Wed 05 Jun 2019)Match played between Mark 'On Your' Toseland (home) and Ed Cross (away).Match won by Mark 'On Your' Toseland. Result: 11-2,11-7,11-7. Starting level for Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 5,175, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Ed Cross: 3,334, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Mark 'On Your' Toseland to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Ed Cross. Mark 'On Your' Toseland won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark 'On Your' Toseland played 106% better than Ed Cross in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark 'On Your' Toseland actually played at a level of 5,965 and Ed Cross at a level of 2,892. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark 'On Your' Toseland changes to +12% and Ed Cross changes to -10.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark 'On Your' Toseland becomes +4.3% and for Ed Cross becomes -4.4%. Given Mark 'On Your' Toseland's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2019' so the adjustment for Mark 'On Your' Toseland is +2.7% and for Ed Cross is -2.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 81%, Ed Cross: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 70%, Ed Cross: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 5,270, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Ed Cross: 3,226, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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