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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Lansdown Summer A v David Lloyd A (Wed 12 Jun 2019)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Rusty Pearce (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 11-5,11-1,11-4:11-5,11-2,11-1:11-7,11-7,10-12,11-6:11-5,11-6,11-6. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 12,824, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 6,155, level confidence: 51%. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 108% better than Rusty Pearce. Luke Bishop won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 230% better than Rusty Pearce in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Bishop actually played at a level of 16,139 and Rusty Pearce at a level of 4,891. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to +14% and Rusty Pearce changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes +3.9% and for Rusty Pearce becomes -5.4%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 52% has been applied to his level change. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2019' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is +1.7% and for Rusty Pearce is -3.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 79%, Rusty Pearce: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 63%, Rusty Pearce: 57%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 13,017, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 5,956, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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