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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Workout Harbourside Summer 1 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 17 Jul 2019)Match played between Luke Howells (home) and Duncan Higgins (away).Match won by Luke Howells. Result: 11-9,11-6,9-11,11-8:12-10,11-3,11-7:11-9,11-7,7-11,11-3:11-13,11-6,11-7,11-4. Starting level for Luke Howells: 5,177, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Duncan Higgins: 3,727, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Luke Howells to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Duncan Higgins. Luke Howells won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Howells played 25% better than Duncan Higgins in this match. As Luke Howells has played below his allowed range at 4,709, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Luke Howells would normally have been playing at level 5,003 (based on typical behaviour), Duncan Higgins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 3.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Howells changes to -1.2% and Duncan Higgins changes to +3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Howells becomes -0.7% and for Duncan Higgins becomes +1.9%. Given Luke Howells's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2019' so the adjustment for Luke Howells is -0.5% and for Duncan Higgins is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Howells: 83%, Duncan Higgins: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Howells: 78%, Duncan Higgins: 81%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Howells: 5,151, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Duncan Higgins: 3,808, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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