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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: BAWA A v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 24 Jul 2019)Match played between Sean Adams (home) and Owen London (away).Match won by Sean Adams. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-9. Starting level for Sean Adams: 3,101, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Owen London: 286, level confidence: 10%. Sean Adams to win as he is currently playing 984% better than Owen London. Sean Adams won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sean Adams played 52% better than Owen London in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Sean Adams was taking it easy by anything up to 61%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 343 and 3,101 without affecting his level. In this case, Sean Adams played at level 726 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Sean Adams would normally have been playing at level 1,216 (based on typical behaviour), Owen London played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 67%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sean Adams changes to 0% and Owen London changes to +17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sean Adams becomes 0% and for Owen London becomes +9.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2019' so the adjustment for Sean Adams is 0% and for Owen London is +6.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sean Adams: 82%, Owen London: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sean Adams: 31%, Owen London: 12%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sean Adams: 3,096, level confidence: 31%. Final level for Owen London: 304, level confidence: 12%. Notes
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