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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Gordano A v Redland Summer D (Wed 17 Jul 2019)Match played between Steve Gale (home) and Simon 'He Will Be Back' Evans (away).Match won by Steve Gale. Result: 15-6,15-11,14-16,15-9. Starting level for Steve Gale: 1,537, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Simon 'He Will Be Back' Evans: 1,024, level confidence: 50%. Steve Gale to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Simon 'He Will Be Back' Evans. Steve Gale won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Gale played 30% better than Simon 'He Will Be Back' Evans in this match. As Steve Gale has played below his allowed range at 1,350, his level reduction is 1.3% before damping. On the assumption that Steve Gale would normally have been playing at level 1,463 (based on typical behaviour), Simon 'He Will Be Back' Evans played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 3.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Gale changes to -0.7% and Simon 'He Will Be Back' Evans changes to +3.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Gale becomes -0.6% and for Simon 'He Will Be Back' Evans becomes +3.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2019' so the adjustment for Steve Gale is -0.4% and for Simon 'He Will Be Back' Evans is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Gale: 87%, Simon 'He Will Be Back' Evans: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Gale: 81%, Simon 'He Will Be Back' Evans: 66%. A final adjustment of -2.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Steve Gale: 1,521, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Simon 'He Will Be Back' Evans: 996, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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