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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: David Lloyd C v Lansdown Summer C (Wed 03 Jul 2019)Match played between Mike Morrell (home) and Conall Platts (away).Match won by Conall Platts. Result: 11-15,11-15,7-15. Starting level for Mike Morrell: 795, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Conall Platts: 2,334, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Conall Platts to win as he is currently playing 194% better than Mike Morrell. Conall Platts won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Conall Platts played 55% better than Mike Morrell in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Conall Platts was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,236 and 2,334 without affecting his level. As Conall Platts has played below his allowed range at 1,235, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Conall Platts would normally have been playing at level 1,781 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Morrell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Conall Platts changes to 0% and Mike Morrell changes to +11%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Conall Platts becomes -0% and for Mike Morrell becomes +7.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2019' so the adjustment for Conall Platts is 0% and for Mike Morrell is +4.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Conall Platts: 84%, Mike Morrell: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Conall Platts: 61%, Mike Morrell: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Morrell: 828, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Conall Platts: 2,330, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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