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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Bradley Stoke Squash Club v Kingswood Originals (Thu 20 Jun 2019)Match played between Nathan Littleboy (home) and Wayne 'Achilles' Chard (away).Match won by Nathan Littleboy. Result: 11-15,15-12,12-15,15-10,15-9. Starting level for Nathan Littleboy: 628, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Wayne 'Achilles' Chard: 946, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Wayne 'Achilles' Chard to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Nathan Littleboy. Nathan Littleboy won 60% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Littleboy played 10% better than Wayne 'Achilles' Chard in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Littleboy actually played at a level of 810 and Wayne 'Achilles' Chard at a level of 734. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Littleboy changes to +23% and Wayne 'Achilles' Chard changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Littleboy becomes +12.6% and for Wayne 'Achilles' Chard becomes -10.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2019' so the adjustment for Nathan Littleboy is +8.2% and for Wayne 'Achilles' Chard is -6.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Wayne 'Achilles' Chard is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Littleboy: 77%, Wayne 'Achilles' Chard: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Littleboy: 59%, Wayne 'Achilles' Chard: 67%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nathan Littleboy: 678, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Wayne 'Achilles' Chard: 900, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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