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Login: | Explaining level changesViri Chauhan v Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams (Sat 29 Jun 2019)Match won by Viri Chauhan. Result: 9-1,9-1,9-1.Starting level for Viri Chauhan: 1,321, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,288, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Viri Chauhan to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Viri Chauhan won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Viri Chauhan played 209% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Viri Chauhan actually played at a level of 2,293 and Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams at a level of 742. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 74% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Viri Chauhan changes to +69% and Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to -72%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Viri Chauhan becomes +28.1% and for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes -30%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Viri Chauhan is +14% and for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is -13%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Viri Chauhan is limited to +10% and Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Viri Chauhan: 94%, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Viri Chauhan: 54%, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 53%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Viri Chauhan: 1,451, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,225, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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