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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 30 Oct 2019)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Luke Howells (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-6. Starting level for Mark Radley: 8,434, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Luke Howells: 5,988, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Luke Howells. Mark Radley won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 74% better than Luke Howells in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Radley actually played at a level of 9,366 and Luke Howells at a level of 5,392. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.2% and 9.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to +9% and Luke Howells changes to -9.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes +3% and for Luke Howells becomes -3.4%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Given Luke Howells's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is +2% and for Luke Howells is -2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 88%, Luke Howells: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 79%, Luke Howells: 78%. A final adjustment of +1.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 8,605, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Luke Howells: 6,056, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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