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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 02 Oct 2019)Match played between Ruoshan Yau (home) and Mark Radley (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 1-11,7-11,6-11. Starting level for Ruoshan Yau: 1,849, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Mark Radley: 8,555, level confidence: 40%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 363% better than Ruoshan Yau. Mark Radley won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 136% better than Ruoshan Yau in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Radley was taking it easy by anything up to 40%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,756 and 8,555 without affecting his level. In this case, Mark Radley played at level 4,747 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mark Radley would normally have been playing at level 5,171 (based on typical behaviour), Ruoshan Yau played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to 0% and Ruoshan Yau changes to +4.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes 0% and for Ruoshan Yau becomes +2.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is 0% and for Ruoshan Yau is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 64%, Ruoshan Yau: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 45%, Ruoshan Yau: 23%. A final adjustment of +59% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ruoshan Yau: 4,653, level confidence: 23%. Final level for Mark Radley: 8,775, level confidence: 45%. Notes
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