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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 02 Oct 2019)Match played between Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson (home) and Andy Ewings (away).Match won by Andy Ewings. Result: 7-11,3-11,8-11. Starting level for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson: 2,397, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 6,452, level confidence: 68%. Andy Ewings to win as he is currently playing 169% better than Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson. Andy Ewings won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Ewings played 83% better than Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Andy Ewings was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,805 and 6,452 without affecting his level. In this case, Andy Ewings played at level 4,735 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Andy Ewings would normally have been playing at level 5,103 (based on typical behaviour), Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Ewings changes to 0% and Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson changes to +4.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Ewings becomes 0% and for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson becomes +2.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Andy Ewings is 0% and for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Ewings: 83%, Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Ewings: 68%, Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson: 26%. A final adjustment of +15.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson: 3,234, level confidence: 26%. Final level for Andy Ewings: 6,468, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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