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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 11 Dec 2019)Match played between Jeremy Goulding (home) and Harrison 'Trackies' Hall (away).Match won by Jeremy Goulding. Result: 7-11,11-4,11-3,11-3. Starting level for Jeremy Goulding: 5,041, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Harrison 'Trackies' Hall: 2,075, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Jeremy Goulding to win as he is currently playing 143% better than Harrison 'Trackies' Hall. Jeremy Goulding won 75% of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 90% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeremy Goulding played 47% better than Harrison 'Trackies' Hall in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jeremy Goulding was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,244 and 5,041 without affecting his level. As Jeremy Goulding has played below his allowed range at 3,141, his level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that Jeremy Goulding would normally have been playing at level 4,144 (based on typical behaviour), Harrison 'Trackies' Hall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 10.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Goulding changes to -2.1% and Harrison 'Trackies' Hall changes to +8.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Goulding becomes -1.2% and for Harrison 'Trackies' Hall becomes +4.4%. Given Jeremy Goulding's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Jeremy Goulding is -0.9% and for Harrison 'Trackies' Hall is +3.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Goulding: 76%, Harrison 'Trackies' Hall: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Goulding: 59%, Harrison 'Trackies' Hall: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jeremy Goulding: 4,988, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Harrison 'Trackies' Hall: 2,140, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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