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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 09 Oct 2019)Match played between Keith Sanzo (home) and Jasper 'Russell Hobbs' Kettle (away).Match won by Keith Sanzo. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-7. Starting level for Keith Sanzo: 5,074, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Jasper 'Russell Hobbs' Kettle: 3,835, level confidence: 10%. Keith Sanzo to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Jasper 'Russell Hobbs' Kettle. Keith Sanzo won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Sanzo played 74% better than Jasper 'Russell Hobbs' Kettle in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Sanzo actually played at a level of 5,814 and Jasper 'Russell Hobbs' Kettle at a level of 3,347. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Sanzo changes to +2.1% and Jasper 'Russell Hobbs' Kettle changes to -13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Sanzo becomes +1.2% and for Jasper 'Russell Hobbs' Kettle becomes -4.8%. Given Keith Sanzo's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Keith Sanzo is +0.9% and for Jasper 'Russell Hobbs' Kettle is -3.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Sanzo: 77%, Jasper 'Russell Hobbs' Kettle: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Sanzo: 68%, Jasper 'Russell Hobbs' Kettle: 28%. A final adjustment of +10.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Keith Sanzo: 5,152, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Jasper 'Russell Hobbs' Kettle: 4,528, level confidence: 28%. Notes
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