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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 09 Oct 2019)Match played between Oli Harding (home) and Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson (away).Match won by Oli Harding. Result: 11-5,12-10,11-4. Starting level for Oli Harding: 5,128, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson: 3,234, level confidence: 58%. Oli Harding to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson. Oli Harding won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oli Harding played 79% better than Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oli Harding actually played at a level of 5,448 and Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson at a level of 3,044. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 4.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oli Harding changes to +3.8% and Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson changes to -4.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oli Harding becomes +2% and for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson becomes -2.6%. Given Oli Harding's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Oli Harding is +1.5% and for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson is -2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oli Harding: 87%, Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oli Harding: 82%, Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Oli Harding: 5,173, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson: 3,137, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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