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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v David Lloyd A (Wed 09 Oct 2019)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Bradley Clare (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 11-4,5-11,11-5,7-11,11-5. Starting level for Mark Radley: 8,775, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Bradley Clare: 5,476, level confidence: 64%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Bradley Clare. Mark Radley won 60% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 14% better than Bradley Clare in this match. As Mark Radley has played below his allowed range at 6,876, his level reduction is 10.4% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Radley would normally have been playing at level 8,227 (based on typical behaviour), Bradley Clare played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.1% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to -8.1% and Bradley Clare changes to +9.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes -2.8% and for Bradley Clare becomes +3.6%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Given Bradley Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is -1.9% and for Bradley Clare is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 73%, Bradley Clare: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 62%, Bradley Clare: 68%. A final adjustment of -1.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 8,415, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Bradley Clare: 5,536, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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