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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v David Lloyd A (Wed 20 Nov 2019)Match played between Paul Cresswell (home) and Rusty Pearce (away).Match won by Paul Cresswell. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-2:11-8,10-12,11-6,11-6:8-11,11-9,8-11,11-9,11-5:11-5,11-6,7-11,4-11,9-11:7-11,12-10,11-8,11-6. Starting level for Paul Cresswell: 7,301, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 5,832, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Paul Cresswell to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Rusty Pearce. Paul Cresswell won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Cresswell played 200% better than Rusty Pearce in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Cresswell actually played at a level of 11,302 and Rusty Pearce at a level of 3,767. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 55% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 48% and 48% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Cresswell changes to +48% and Rusty Pearce changes to -33%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Cresswell becomes +11.9% and for Rusty Pearce becomes -9.3%. Given Paul Cresswell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.9% has been applied to his level change. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.5% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Paul Cresswell is +8.2% and for Rusty Pearce is -6.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rusty Pearce is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Cresswell: 76%, Rusty Pearce: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Cresswell: 49%, Rusty Pearce: 56%. A final adjustment of +2.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Cresswell: 8,288, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 5,552, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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