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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Lansdown 1 (Wed 23 Oct 2019)Match played between Rich Macbride (home) and Mark Radley (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 1-11,7-11,7-11. Starting level for Rich Macbride: 5,068, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Starting level for Mark Radley: 8,234, level confidence: 64%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Rich Macbride. Mark Radley won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 120% better than Rich Macbride in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Radley actually played at a level of 9,582 and Rich Macbride at a level of 4,355. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to +13% and Rich Macbride changes to -9.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes +4% and for Rich Macbride becomes -3.6%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Given Rich Macbride's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is +2.6% and for Rich Macbride is -2.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 80%, Rich Macbride: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 69%, Rich Macbride: 79%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rich Macbride: 4,901, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Mark Radley: 8,434, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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