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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland Z (Wed 23 Oct 2019)Match played between Theis Houlberg (home) and Dave Allman (away).Match won by Theis Houlberg. Result: 14-12,11-4,11-8:7-11,11-5,7-11,8-11:12-14,11-3,8-11,11-6,11-9:11-8,11-7,11-8:11-8,10-12,11-7,11-6. Starting level for Theis Houlberg: 11,828, level confidence: 89%. Set manually. Starting level for Dave Allman: 8,797, level confidence: 63%. Theis Houlberg to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Dave Allman. Theis Houlberg won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Theis Houlberg played 52% better than Dave Allman in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Theis Houlberg actually played at a level of 12,562 and Dave Allman at a level of 8,283. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 5.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Theis Houlberg changes to +3.8% and Dave Allman changes to -5.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Theis Houlberg becomes +1.6% and for Dave Allman becomes -2.1%. Given Theis Houlberg's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Given Dave Allman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Theis Houlberg is +1% and for Dave Allman is -1.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Theis Houlberg: 94%, Dave Allman: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Theis Houlberg: 89%, Dave Allman: 75%. A final adjustment of +4.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Theis Houlberg: 11,853, level confidence: 89%. Final level for Dave Allman: 9,596, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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