|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Westbury David Lloyd A v University of Bristol Ballers (Thu 10 Oct 2019)Match played between Jared London (home) and Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson (away).Match won by Jared London. Result: 11-6,11-6,8-11,9-11,11-9:11-7,4-11,8-11,8-11:11-6,11-9,8-11,9-11,5-11:1-11,6-11,11-9,9-11:9-11,11-8,12-14,13-11,7-11. Starting level for Jared London: 9,624, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 5,866, level confidence: 10%. Jared London to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson. Jared London won 60% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jared London played 12% better than Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson in this match. As Jared London has played below his allowed range at 7,333, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Jared London would normally have been playing at level 8,971 (based on typical behaviour), Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.3% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jared London changes to -1.4% and Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson changes to +13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jared London becomes -0.7% and for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson becomes +4.4%. Given Jared London's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Given Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Jared London is -0.5% and for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson is +3.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jared London: 78%, Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jared London: 64%, Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 26%. A final adjustment of +25.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jared London: 9,688, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 9,445, level confidence: 26%. Notes
|