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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Shepton Mallet A v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 20 Nov 2019)Match played between Sam Price (home) and Jared London (away).Match won by Jared London. Result: 6-11,6-11,3-11:7-11,5-11,11-7,11-9,11-9:11-4,11-7,12-14,11-9:11-6,11-6,12-10:15-13,11-6,11-8. Starting level for Sam Price: 6,267, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Jared London: 10,130, level confidence: 51%. Jared London to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Sam Price. Jared London won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jared London played 120% better than Sam Price in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jared London actually played at a level of 11,818 and Sam Price at a level of 5,372. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jared London changes to +13% and Sam Price changes to -8.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jared London becomes +3.8% and for Sam Price becomes -3.1%. Given Jared London's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Given Sam Price's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Jared London is +2.4% and for Sam Price is -2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jared London: 72%, Sam Price: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jared London: 61%, Sam Price: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Price: 6,132, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Jared London: 10,362, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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