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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 v Redwood Phoenix (Thu 17 Oct 2019)Match played between Mike Secker (home) and Nick Cheek (away).Match won by Mike Secker. Result: 15-11,15-7,15-6. Starting level for Mike Secker: 1,641, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Nick Cheek: 1,243, level confidence: 69%. Mike Secker to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Nick Cheek. Mike Secker won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Secker played 88% better than Nick Cheek in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Secker actually played at a level of 1,956 and Nick Cheek at a level of 1,043. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Secker changes to +16% and Nick Cheek changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Secker becomes +7.8% and for Nick Cheek becomes -8.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Mike Secker is +5.8% and for Nick Cheek is -6.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nick Cheek is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Secker: 81%, Nick Cheek: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Secker: 68%, Nick Cheek: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Secker: 1,734, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Nick Cheek: 1,182, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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