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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: Weston Shankers v Redland Eagles (Wed 27 Nov 2019)Match played between David Glimstead (home) and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (away).Match won by David Glimstead. Result: 16-14,15-11,15-5. Starting level for David Glimstead: 1,297, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 910, level confidence: 29%. David Glimstead to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. David Glimstead won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 53% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Glimstead played 54% better than Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Glimstead actually played at a level of 1,348 and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss at a level of 876. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 3.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Glimstead changes to +1.1% and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to -3.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Glimstead becomes +1% and for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes -3.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for David Glimstead is +0.8% and for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is -2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Glimstead: 92%, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Glimstead: 89%, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 52%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Glimstead: 1,304, level confidence: 89%. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 888, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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