|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Thornbury A v University of Bristol Chiefs (Thu 14 Nov 2019)Match played between Mick Dixon (home) and Fin 'Huggies' McManus (away).Match won by Fin 'Huggies' McManus. Result: 3-15,4-15,4-15. Starting level for Mick Dixon: 2,054, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 4,110, level confidence: 68%. Fin 'Huggies' McManus to win as he is currently playing 100% better than Mick Dixon. Fin 'Huggies' McManus won all of the games and 80% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 309% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fin 'Huggies' McManus played 309% better than Mick Dixon in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fin 'Huggies' McManus actually played at a level of 5,877 and Mick Dixon at a level of 1,437. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fin 'Huggies' McManus changes to +24% and Mick Dixon changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fin 'Huggies' McManus becomes +7.9% and for Mick Dixon becomes -11%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Fin 'Huggies' McManus is +5.9% and for Mick Dixon is -8.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mick Dixon is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 82%, Mick Dixon: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 58%, Mick Dixon: 53%. A final adjustment of -1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mick Dixon: 1,953, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Fin 'Huggies' McManus: 4,276, level confidence: 58%. Notes
|