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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 3 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Tue 19 Nov 2019)Match played between Elliot 'Boris' Webber (home) and James ‘The Tinman’ Lee (away).Match won by James ‘The Tinman’ Lee. Result: 13-15,10-15,6-15:8-15,10-15,10-15:7-15,4-15,8-15:6-15,6-15,9-15:15-12,18-16,15-9. Starting level for Elliot 'Boris' Webber: 2,051, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Starting level for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee: 3,502, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. James ‘The Tinman’ Lee to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Elliot 'Boris' Webber. James ‘The Tinman’ Lee won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James ‘The Tinman’ Lee played 55% better than Elliot 'Boris' Webber in this match. In this case, James ‘The Tinman’ Lee played at level 3,206 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James ‘The Tinman’ Lee would normally have been playing at level 3,230 (based on typical behaviour), Elliot 'Boris' Webber played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee changes to 0% and Elliot 'Boris' Webber changes to +0.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee becomes 0% and for Elliot 'Boris' Webber becomes +0.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee is 0% and for Elliot 'Boris' Webber is +0.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James ‘The Tinman’ Lee: 92%, Elliot 'Boris' Webber: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James ‘The Tinman’ Lee: 88%, Elliot 'Boris' Webber: 87%. A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Elliot 'Boris' Webber: 2,064, level confidence: 87%. Final level for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee: 3,538, level confidence: 88%. Notes
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