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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 3 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Tue 19 Nov 2019)Match played between Gianluca Tellenbach (home) and Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods (away).Match won by Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods. Result: 6-15,6-15,9-15. Starting level for Gianluca Tellenbach: 1,367, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods: 2,795, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Gianluca Tellenbach. Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods played 114% better than Gianluca Tellenbach in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods actually played at a level of 2,861 and Gianluca Tellenbach at a level of 1,335. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 1.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods changes to +1.3% and Gianluca Tellenbach changes to -1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods becomes +0.9% and for Gianluca Tellenbach becomes -1.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods is +0.7% and for Gianluca Tellenbach is -1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods: 87%, Gianluca Tellenbach: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods: 85%, Gianluca Tellenbach: 77%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Gianluca Tellenbach: 1,350, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Tom 'Ethiopia' Woods: 2,810, level confidence: 85%. Notes
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