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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: University of Bristol Sharks v University of Bath 5 (Tue 10 Dec 2019)Match played between Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman (home) and Billy ‘The Better’ Colley (away).Match won by Billy ‘The Better’ Colley. Result: 6-15,8-15,10-15. Starting level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 748, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Billy ‘The Better’ Colley: 1,068, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Billy ‘The Better’ Colley to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman. Billy ‘The Better’ Colley won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Billy ‘The Better’ Colley played 88% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Billy ‘The Better’ Colley actually played at a level of 1,224 and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman at a level of 653. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Billy ‘The Better’ Colley changes to +12% and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman changes to -11%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Billy ‘The Better’ Colley becomes +7.2% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman becomes -7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Billy ‘The Better’ Colley is +5.4% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman is -5.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Billy ‘The Better’ Colley: 89%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Billy ‘The Better’ Colley: 77%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 81%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 711, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Billy ‘The Better’ Colley: 1,124, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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