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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Westbury David Lloyd C v University of Bristol Sharks (Thu 21 Nov 2019)Match played between Ben 'Taggart' Kerr (home) and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman (away).Match won by Ben 'Taggart' Kerr. Result: 16-14,17-15,6-15,15-12. Starting level for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr: 1,255, level confidence: 91%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 743, level confidence: 61%. Ben 'Taggart' Kerr to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman. Ben 'Taggart' Kerr won 75% of the games and 49% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben 'Taggart' Kerr played 16% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman in this match. As Ben 'Taggart' Kerr has played below his allowed range at 951, his level reduction is 10.8% before damping. On the assumption that Ben 'Taggart' Kerr would normally have been playing at level 1,161 (based on typical behaviour), Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.2% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr changes to -5.3% and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman changes to +12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr becomes -3.8% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman becomes +7.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr is -2.8% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman is +5.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben 'Taggart' Kerr: 96%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben 'Taggart' Kerr: 79%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 65%. A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr: 1,243, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 784, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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