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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: BAWA v Kingsdown (Wed 06 Nov 2019)Match played between Dave Busby (home) and David Mortimer (away).Match won by David Mortimer. Result: 10-15,10-15,13-15. Starting level for Dave Busby: 321, level confidence: 15%. Starting level for David Mortimer: 747, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. David Mortimer to win as he is currently playing 133% better than Dave Busby. David Mortimer won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Mortimer played 43% better than Dave Busby in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Mortimer was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 497 and 747 without affecting his level. As David Mortimer has played below his allowed range at 477, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that David Mortimer would normally have been playing at level 623 (based on typical behaviour), Dave Busby played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 10.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Mortimer changes to -0.5% and Dave Busby changes to +10.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Mortimer becomes -0.5% and for Dave Busby becomes +6.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for David Mortimer is -0.4% and for Dave Busby is +5.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Mortimer: 89%, Dave Busby: 38%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Mortimer: 70%, Dave Busby: 30%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dave Busby: 337, level confidence: 30%. Final level for David Mortimer: 743, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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