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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: David Lloyd C v Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - K2 (Wed 04 Dec 2019)Match played between John Watts (home) and Michael Lok (away).Match won by Michael Lok. Result: 9-15,14-16,15-7,11-15. Starting level for John Watts: 536, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Michael Lok: 503, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. John Watts to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Michael Lok. Michael Lok won 75% of the games and 52% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Lok played 19% better than John Watts in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Lok actually played at a level of 567 and John Watts at a level of 475. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Lok changes to +9.8% and John Watts changes to -12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Lok becomes +6.3% and for John Watts becomes -7.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Michael Lok is +4.8% and for John Watts is -5.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that John Watts is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Lok: 88%, John Watts: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Lok: 78%, John Watts: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for John Watts: 510, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Michael Lok: 526, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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