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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown A v Workout Harbourside A (Thu 03 Oct 2019)Match played between Hannah Scott (home) and Jess Holme (away).Match won by Hannah Scott. Result: 15-6,15-11,15-6. Starting level for Hannah Scott: 708, level confidence: 37%. Starting level for Jess Holme: 267, level confidence: 57%. Hannah Scott to win as she is currently playing 165% better than Jess Holme. Hannah Scott won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 96% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hannah Scott played 96% better than Jess Holme in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Hannah Scott was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 423 and 708 without affecting her level. In this case, Hannah Scott played at level 542 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Hannah Scott would normally have been playing at level 563 (based on typical behaviour), Jess Holme played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hannah Scott changes to 0% and Jess Holme changes to +1.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hannah Scott becomes 0% and for Jess Holme becomes +1.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Hannah Scott is 0% and for Jess Holme is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hannah Scott: 60%, Jess Holme: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hannah Scott: 52%, Jess Holme: 65%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Hannah Scott: 712, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Jess Holme: 270, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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