Division 1: Lansdown A v Weston A (Thu 28 Nov 2019)
Match played between Quita Colston (home) and Rosa Venables (away).
Match won by Quita Colston. Result: 15-8,15-8,15-11.
Starting level for
Quita Colston:
526, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Rosa Venables:
260, level confidence: 27%.
Quita Colston to win as she is currently playing
102% better than Rosa Venables.
Quita Colston won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Quita Colston played
67% better than Rosa Venables in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Quita Colston was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 388 and 526 without affecting her level.
In this case, Quita Colston played at level 446 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Quita Colston would normally have been playing at level 459 (based on typical behaviour), Rosa Venables played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Quita Colston changes to 0% and Rosa Venables changes to +2.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Quita Colston becomes 0% and for Rosa Venables becomes +2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Autumn 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Quita Colston is 0% and for Rosa Venables is +1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Quita Colston: 88%, Rosa Venables: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Quita Colston: 80%, Rosa Venables: 47%.
Final level for Quita Colston:
526, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Rosa Venables:
264, level confidence: 47%.
Notes
- This calculation is done in two main parts; first work out the adjustment needed to match the results
and then apply damping. This means that levels should always be 'about right' but the time taken
to get there or the volatility is dependent on the damping.
- A level also has 'level confidence' which drops if players haven't played for a long time or have had
enexpected results. As low confidence levels adjust more quickly than high confidence levels, it allows
these players to find their level more quickly without impacting their opponent's level too much.
- Point scores are used as well as game scores for accuracy - particularly important for 3-0 results -
though we can work with game scores only too, albeit with more damping.
- Mismatched players are allowed for - you don't have to hammer your opponent. See explanation above
if this applies to this match.
- The section on damping is where we still have some options. We have recently made a change to damp
league matches more than tournament matches and box matches even more than that. This gives added
weight to the more important matches.
- There are occasional, very small adjustments made to all players to keep the averages constant which
are not covered here.
- You don't get a bonus just for winning - if you want to go up you have to play better
than expected against your opponent.
- We have spent more than 5 years fine tuning the level calculations based on tens of thousands of match results
and a great deal of feedback from players, team captains and coaches. It's the most usable and accurate
ranking system there is in any sport, let alone squash.
- For a more complete explanation of how levels are calculated (on which this system is based) see the help file
here.
- If you have thoughts/opinions on the above or any feedback on the way levels are calculated or updated,
please contact us.
We welcome all feedback, although we are keen squash players ourselves and would pefer to be on-court than
in front of a screen so please be patient and please do try to see if your question has already been
answered on the help page. We are unable to
answer questions about hard anyone played in their match - we only get to see the results - and if your
level didn't increase as expected please make sure you've looked at the above explanation before
contacting us. If you want to go up the levels, train harder, listen to your coach and win more points.
Or just be incredibly talented!