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Login: | Explaining level changesBen Megson v Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters (Thu 26 Sep 2019)Match won by Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters. Result: 8-15,10-15,15-9,8-15.Starting level for Ben Megson: 475, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 1,393, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters to win as he is currently playing 193% better than Ben Megson. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters played 27% better than Ben Megson in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 709 and 1,393 without affecting his level. As Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters has played below his allowed range at 655, his level reduction is 8.3% before damping. On the assumption that Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters would normally have been playing at level 1,063 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Megson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 33%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters changes to -4.1% and Ben Megson changes to +18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters becomes -3.1% and for Ben Megson becomes +10.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Westbury David Lloyd Boxes' so the adjustment for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters is -1.5% and for Ben Megson is +5.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 91%, Ben Megson: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 60%, Ben Megson: 56%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben Megson: 501, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 1,375, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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