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Login: | Explaining level changesJames Baines v Robin Shapter (Mon 28 Oct 2019)Match won by James Baines. Result: 3-9,4-9,9-1,9-5,9-6.Starting level for James Baines: 848, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Robin Shapter: 437, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. James Baines to win as he is currently playing 94% better than Robin Shapter. James Baines won 60% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Baines played 9% better than Robin Shapter in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Baines was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 627 and 848 without affecting his level. As James Baines has played below his allowed range at 547, his level reduction is 15% before damping. On the assumption that James Baines would normally have been playing at level 752 (based on typical behaviour), Robin Shapter played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.4% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Baines changes to -10.4% and Robin Shapter changes to +16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Baines becomes -6.7% and for Robin Shapter becomes +9.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Kingsdown & Horfield Boxes' so the adjustment for James Baines is -3.2% and for Robin Shapter is +4.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Baines: 84%, Robin Shapter: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Baines: 63%, Robin Shapter: 66%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Baines: 823, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Robin Shapter: 457, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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