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Login: | Explaining level changesSteve 'Hairy Days' Drew v Mike Easton (Sun 17 Nov 2019)Match won by Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew. Result: 15-8,15-6,15-12.Starting level for Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew: 654, level confidence: 21%. Starting level for Mike Easton: 253, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew to win as he is currently playing 158% better than Mike Easton. Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew played 73% better than Mike Easton in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 378 and 654 without affecting his level. In this case, Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew played at level 480 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew would normally have been playing at level 525 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Easton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew changes to 0% and Mike Easton changes to +1.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew becomes 0% and for Mike Easton becomes +1.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Weston Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew is 0% and for Mike Easton is +0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew: 46%, Mike Easton: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew: 38%, Mike Easton: 73%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Steve 'Hairy Days' Drew: 656, level confidence: 38%. Final level for Mike Easton: 255, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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