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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: University of Bristol Fresh v Weston Slappers (Tue 18 Feb 2020)Match played between Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl (home) and Shaun Roche (away).Match won by Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl. Result: 15-5,15-13,16-14. Starting level for Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl: 827, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Shaun Roche: 566, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Shaun Roche. Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl played 47% better than Shaun Roche in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl actually played at a level of 831 and Shaun Roche at a level of 563. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl changes to +0.4% and Shaun Roche changes to -0.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl becomes +0.4% and for Shaun Roche becomes -0.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl is 0% and for Shaun Roche is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl: 89%, Shaun Roche: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl: 89%, Shaun Roche: 89%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Cameron 'Dont Know Her Name' Anwyl: 828, level confidence: 89%. Final level for Shaun Roche: 564, level confidence: 89%. Notes
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