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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Thornbury A v University of Bristol Chiefs (Tue 11 Feb 2020)Match played between Nick Clifton (home) and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman (away).Match won by Nick Clifton. Result: 12-10,11-5,11-3. Starting level for Nick Clifton: 1,725, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 707, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Nick Clifton to win as he is currently playing 144% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman. Nick Clifton won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Clifton played 89% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nick Clifton was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,106 and 1,725 without affecting his level. In this case, Nick Clifton played at level 1,375 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nick Clifton would normally have been playing at level 1,416 (based on typical behaviour), Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Clifton changes to 0% and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman changes to +1.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Clifton becomes 0% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman becomes +1.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Nick Clifton is 0% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman is +1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Clifton: 84%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Clifton: 74%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 77%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick Clifton: 1,722, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 715, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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