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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Thornbury A v Lansdown 2 (Wed 15 Jan 2020)Match played between Rob Livingstone (home) and Jeremy Goulding (away).Match won by Jeremy Goulding. Result: 5-11,8-11,10-12. Starting level for Rob Livingstone: 2,462, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Jeremy Goulding: 5,035, level confidence: 68%. Jeremy Goulding to win as he is currently playing 105% better than Rob Livingstone. Jeremy Goulding won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeremy Goulding played 50% better than Rob Livingstone in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jeremy Goulding was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,682 and 5,035 without affecting his level. In this case, Jeremy Goulding played at level 4,025 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jeremy Goulding would normally have been playing at level 4,381 (based on typical behaviour), Rob Livingstone played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Goulding changes to 0% and Rob Livingstone changes to +6.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Goulding becomes 0% and for Rob Livingstone becomes +3.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Jeremy Goulding is 0% and for Rob Livingstone is +2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Goulding: 82%, Rob Livingstone: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Goulding: 71%, Rob Livingstone: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob Livingstone: 2,518, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Jeremy Goulding: 5,027, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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